Adapted from The Last Lipstick Generation, an upcoming editorial on the cultural shift from glam to glow in modern beauty.
Beauty has long been considered one of the most resilient discretionary categories, a belief tied to the so-called Lipstick Effect, an economic theory that when consumers sense a recession looming, sales of affordable luxuries like lipstick increase. The concept originates with Juliet Schor in 1998 and the publication of The Overspent American: Why We Want What We Don’t Need. It was, however, Leonard Lauder (Estée Lauder) who popularized the theory in 2001 by naming it the “lipstick index“.
But here in 2025, the Lipstick Index feels like a fading echo. Recent earnings reports reveal a beauty industry in retreat. News reports detail how Coty’s sales dropped 6%, accompanied by layoffs of around 700 employees. LVMH’s selective retailing and perfumes and cosmetics divisions stalled. L’Oréal, once known for double-digit growth, slowed to a modest 3.5%. Even stalwarts like Estée Lauder and Shiseido are struggling with sliding sales and layoffs. Of course there are a number of market factors at play, however there’s no denying fundamental shifts are underway.
Lipsticks, glosses, and liners fall under the traditional lip color category, while lip care—balms, oils, and treatments—is growing faster. According to Grand View Research, the global lip care market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% from 2025 to 2030. Lipstick sales haven’t disappeared, but they’re not keeping pace with the surge in demand for nourishing, skincare-adjacent formulas.
What’s behind this shift? During the 2020 pandemic, lipstick lost ground beneath face masks, while skincare and hydration surged. The rise of TikTok, K-Beauty’s skincare obsession, and growing demand for clean, transparent formulations have reshaped priorities. Glossy, hydrating, and comfortable products like lip balms, oils, and treatments stepped in and the modern lip care era began.
The lipstick bullet remains, but its sparkle is dimming. The Lipstick Index may well mark the last chapter of an era, one where beauty was measured in color and glam, replaced now by a focus on health, hydration, comfort, and clean beauty.
Disclosure: This post may contain Amazon affiliate links. If you choose to purchase through them, I may earn a small commission—at no extra cost to you. I only link to products or books I genuinely reference or believe add value.
